How large a stack keeps loan-to-value ≤ 50% even if price sits at the
bitcoin power law floor
— while drawing loan tranches as needed and capitalising interest, indefinitely.
LTV if price at floor (stress)LTV if price on trend
Phase 0 · Accumulation via DCA
How long until you can start borrowing?
Save monthly into Bitcoin at the trend price, starting today. Every month your stack grows;
every month the required stack for the strategy above shrinks (because trend price climbs). Wait for them to cross.
DCA Strategy
Handover
Time to "ready to borrow"
—
Stack accumulated by then
—
Total USD invested via DCA
—
Stack value at handover @ trend
—
Required stack vs. accumulated stack
log scale
required stack (if borrowing starts then)accumulated via DCAcrossover = "ready to borrow"
Your device, your data - this site runs entirely in your browser; no servers, no tracking, no cookies.
Method. Trend = a·xᵇ with a=10-16.493, b=5.688, x = days since genesis (3 Jan 2009). Stress price = (multiple)·trend; Bitcoin's
rarely-breached floor ≈ 0.42×. Liabilities draw one tranche every few months from today and compound interest monthly; nothing is ever repaid.
Required stack = maxₜ [ liabilities(t) ÷ (maxLTV · stress price(t)) ]. DCA logic. Each month, the slider amount buys BTC at k·trend price, where k is the "effective price paid" slider (default 0.80×).
Because Bitcoin spends roughly half its time below trend and DCA captures the harmonic mean of visited prices, real cycle-aware DCA historically
pays ~0.7–0.85× of trend, not 1.0×. Set k=1.0× for trend-only buying. For any candidate borrow-start date S, the model re-runs the LTV stress simulation
starting at S and finds the smallest stack that survives it. The handover is the first month where accumulated ≥ required. Disclaimer. This model is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Every number presented depends on an unproven assumption: that Bitcoin's historical "power-law" price trend continues for decades. It may not.
This strategy uses leverage — borrowing against Bitcoin and letting interest compound without repaying. If Bitcoin's price falls far enough,
your loan can be liquidated and you can lose your entire stack. Bitcoin has repeatedly dropped 70%+ in the past. Outputs marked "forever" are
illustrative only and assume conditions that have never been tested over a real retirement horizon. Do not make financial decisions based on this tool.