Bitcoin Power-Law Collateral Model
Financing $100k/yr borrowing against Bitcoin
How large a stack keeps loan-to-value ≤ 50% even if price sits at the
Porkopolis power law
16.5ᵗʰ-percentile support band — while drawing tranches as needed and capitalising interest, indefinitely.
Result
Binding moment (peak LTV)
—
LTV at trend price, that date
—
Stack value today @ trend
—
Liabilities vs. collateral value (USD)
log scale
collateral @ trend
collateral @ 16.5ᵗʰ pctile
accrued liabilities
Loan-to-value over time
LTV if price at 16.5ᵗʰ pctile (stress)
LTV if price on trend
Phase 0 · Accumulation via DCA
How long until you can start borrowing?
Save monthly into Bitcoin at the trend price, starting today. Every month your stack grows;
every month the required stack for the strategy above shrinks (because trend price climbs). Wait for them to cross.
Handover
Time to "ready to borrow"
—
Stack accumulated by then
—
Total USD invested via DCA
—
Stack value at handover @ trend
—
Required stack vs. accumulated stack
log scale
required stack (if borrowing starts then)
accumulated via DCA
crossover = "ready to borrow"